PIF 3. Integrated Climate Change Adaptation

The following GEF-PAS proposal, namely Integrated Climate Change Adaptation, attempts to encourage Samoa to adapt to climate change impacts by addressing the following issues:

(i) ISSUE: As an LDC, and a small island developing state (SIDS), Samoa is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The specific nature of this vulnerability is outlined in Samoa’s NAPA, Initial National Communication under the UNFCCC and the recently completed Climate Risk Profile (CRP). The CRP includes an analysis of current and future climate risks for Samoa, based on historical climate data and outputs from global climate models. Significantly, the CRP also confirms anecdotal evidence that the effects of climate change are already being felt in Samoa. Observed trends include: increased maximum air temperatures; increased frequency in extreme daily rainfall events; sea level rise of 5.2 mm/yr; and maximum hourly sea level increasing at a rate of 8.2 mm/yr. The CRP concludes that best estimates of long-term, systematic changes in the average climate for Samoa indicate that by 2050, sea level is likely to have increased by 36cm, maximum temperatures by 0.7°C and extreme wind gusts by 7%. The CRP also projects extreme daily rainfall events of 400mm to become more common, with the return period decreasing from 60 years to 40 years by 2050. This is consistent with the trend over the last 20 years which have seen a significant intensification of rainfall in Samoa. In addition, estimates suggest an increasing frequency in above-normal sea-levels due to storm surges. That is, whereas an hourly sea level of 1.8m above mean sea level (i.e. during storm surges) is currently a 100-year event, it is likely to be at least a 4-year event by 2025. Moreover, extreme high sea surface temperatures and cyclones, as well as more frequent and longer lasting droughts, are additional risks in the Pacific region that have been scientifically linked to anthropogenic induced climate change. In summary, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events is recognized as a key vulnerability issue associated with climate change for Samoa. The specific climate change threats for Samoa include (a) flooding leading to increases in mosquito populations that transmit human diseases including filariasis and dengue fever, with other flood-related diseases such as typhoid and other gastrointestinal infections; (b) extreme rainfall events resulting in overflow of sewerage systems, further spread of human pathogens, serious injuries, loss of life, damage to infrastructure such as buildings, roads and utilities, inundation of coastal areas, damage to crops, increased soil erosion further undermining subsistence agriculture, and sedimentation in coastal waters with threats to fish stocks; (c) drought affecting access to safe drinking water, dehydration, respiratory problems from increased levels of particulate matter in the air, loss of agricultural and livestock productivity, and increased incidence of agricultural pests and diseases; (d) loss of food security and incentives for farmers to continue working their land; (e) damaged marine ecosystems (e.g. coral bleaching and fish poisoning) causing dietary problems for those who depend on reef fish for nutrients; (f) strong winds associated with cyclones resulting in widespread damage to crops, further damaging household plantations; (g) heat stress associated with the rise in average daily temperatures; (h) loss of land due to sea level rise and loss of arable land through inundation and saltwater intrusion with villagers forced to re-locate inland. The severity of these projected climatic changes is recognized as a major problem for Samoa, further compounded by a number of factors which further contribute to low resilience and limited adaptive capacity in the coastal communities such as (i) poor awareness or understanding of the sector-specific implications of climate change amongst relevant stakeholders; (ii) limited resources to implement appropriate response measures; (iii) lack of integration of sector strategies and work plans; (iv) continuing degradation of important ecosystems contributing to the increased vulnerability of communities; and (v) limited capacity to provide effective early warning systems for extreme climatic events. (ii) HOW THE PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE: As there is clear evidence that the existing climatic conditions are beyond Samoa’s coping range, Government, local communities and other stakeholders will need to respond to these extreme climatic events as best they can and early warnings may help mitigate the impacts which are undoubtedly a major barrier to Samoa’s overall future sustainable development. Early warning systems are essential for minimizing the exposure of communities and the economy to extreme climatic events, particularly cyclones, droughts and heavy rainfalls (i.e. flooding). For agriculture and food security, this means having accurate short and medium term warning systems in place, allowing farmers and policy makers to prepare for extreme events. For the health sector, early warning systems help policy makers and health professionals plan for and respond to extreme events, as well as reducing the climate-related health risks posed to individuals. This proposed MSP Project will, therefore, take an integrated approach by implementing adaptation activities in four key sectors identified in the NAPA because of the need to strategically develop capacity across all these four sectors simultaneously under an integrated coordination mechanism. A projected result is the integration of relevant agricultural, environmental, health and meteorological data to better respond to climate change impacts. Governance will also be enhanced through the presence of the MNRE, Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Health (MOH) and Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF) in the National Environmental Board which will be charged with overseeing the implementation of the project and maximizing Samoa’s overall resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change. Samoa recognizes the “principle of balanced access” (LDCF Programming Paper, p.5) and the catalytic nature of GEF funding. This MSP Project will, therefore, focus on building adaptive capacity and resilience at the national and village levels. At the national level, the emphasis will be on developing policies and planning for projected climatic change, as well as developing appropriate response measures to be implemented at the national level. At the village level, the emphasis will be on implementing practical adaptation measures that enhance local people’s resilience to climate change. Combined, these activities will facilitate adaptation in both commercial and subsistence agriculture, as well as promoting food security. Also in Samoa, past degradation of natural resources has increased the vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change. In particular, degradation and loss of mangrove forests and wetlands, along with the degradation of the reef ecosystem, make many communities less resilient to the projected changes associated with climate change and sea level rise. Importantly, the activities under this thematic area will integrate closely with and support adaptation efforts in the health and agriculture and food security thematic areas. Reducing climate-related stresses will re-enforce the important ecosystem services that underpin human health and food security in Samoa. (iii) GLOBAL BENEFITS: Samoa needs to think globally and act locally in terms of climate change adaptation and continue to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol.